Frontier’s new Brexit bulletin “Through a glass, darkly?” revisits our previous empirical work on the impact of Brexit on trade in goods. Recent developments at the Conservative party’s conference have done little to reduce uncertainty over the UK Government’s aims for trade policy post-Brexit, adding to the frustration expressed by some business groups. Meanwhile the EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, continues to maintain that too little progress has been made on the EU’s priority issues – the exit bill, the status of EU citizens in the UK and the UK-Irish border – for trade even to be allowed on to the agenda yet. And in an overwhelming (if non-binding) vote that it shouldn’t, the European Parliament has shown how difficult it could be to get a deal. Through this fog, some of the Government’s aspirations are now beginning to emerge. But as this bulletin explains, there are significant difficulties in putting these aspirations into practice.

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